Eficiencia técnica vs. viabilidad económica en cogeneración
Resolviendo la paradoja de la transición energética mediante el análisis del spark spread en mercados volátiles
Resumen
La literatura de ingeniería energética asume tradicionalmente una correlación positiva directa entre eficiencia técnica y rentabilidad financiera en sistemas de cogeneración. Sin embargo, evidencia empírica reciente revela una paradoja relevante: sistemas con idéntica eficiencia técnica presentan viabilidades económicas divergentes según el contexto institucional. Este artículo aborda esta contradicción utilizando a Colombia como laboratorio teórico de alta volatilidad hídrica y regulatoria. Mediante un diseño cuasiexperimental con simulación Monte Carlo (n = 5200 escenarios), se demuestra que el spark ratio (relación precio electricidad/gas) media completamente la relación entre eficiencia técnica y retorno de inversión, anulando el efecto directo de la eficiencia técnica. Los resultados identifican un umbral crítico de spark ratio ≥ 3,0 necesario para la viabilidad financiera; por debajo de este nivel, incluso la máxima eficiencia técnica genera retornos negativos. Además, se confirma que la volatilidad del mercado eléctrico modera negativamente esta relación, erosionando la rentabilidad en escenarios de alta incertidumbre. Estos hallazgos desafían los modelos de optimización deterministas y sugieren que la transición energética en economías emergentes depende más de la estabilidad de precios relativos que de la sofisticación tecnológica per se.
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Agencias de apoyo:
Universidad de La Guajira, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Doctora Ana Escudero, Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas Medioambientales y Tecnológicas (España), Doctor Israel Herrera Orozco.Referencias bibliográficas
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Datos de los fondos
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Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación
Números de la subvención FP44842-210-2018
Derechos de autor 2026 Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
