Efecto de la diversificación del portafolio sobre la rentabilidad financiera
Evidencia de las principales empresas generadoras de energía en Colombia (2015–2024)
Resumen
Se busca analizar la relación entre diversificación del portafolio de generación eléctrica (fuentes renovables y convencionales) y rentabilidad financiera de las principales empresas generadoras de energía en Colombia entre 2015-2024. Se emplean modelos de datos de panel con efectos fijos por empresa y año, considerando como variables dependientes tres indicadores clave del desempeño financiero (ROA, ROCE y margen neto); en el índice Herfindahl-Hirschman el porcentaje de generación proveniente de energías renovables y el número de tecnologías empleadas constituyen las variables explicativas. Se desprende que una mayor concentración tecnológica se asocia positiva y significativamente con la rentabilidad operativa medida con el ROCE; dicha relación no resulta estadísticamente significativa en el ROA ni en el margen neto. Aspectos como participación de energías renovables, grado de diversificación tecnológica y efecto de interacción entre concentración y participación renovable no presentan relaciones significativas con los indicadores de rentabilidad. Esto sugiere que los beneficios asociados a la especialización tecnológica se manifiestan en la eficiencia del capital, mientras que la diversificación del portafolio —particularmente hacia fuentes renovables— no se traduce en mejoras financieras inmediatas. La evidencia indica que la transición energética en el sector eléctrico no genera efectos homogéneos a corto plazo ni en el desempeño financiero, planteando la necesidad de evaluar sus impactos en horizontes temporales más amplios y bajo condiciones regulatorias y tecnológicas en proceso de consolidación.
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