Efeito da diversificação do portfólio sobre a rentabilidade financeira
Evidências das principais empresas geradoras de energia na Colômbia (2015-2024)
Resumo
Busca-se analisar a relação entre a diversificação do portfólio de geração elétrica (fontes renováveis e convencionais) e a rentabilidade financeira das principais empresas geradoras de energia na Colômbia entre 2015 e 2024. Utilizam-se modelos de dados em painel com efeitos fixos por empresa e ano, considerando como variáveis dependentes três indicadores-chave de desempenho financeiro (ROA, ROCE e margem líquida); o índice Herfindahl-Hirschman, a porcentagem de geração proveniente de energias renováveis e o número de tecnologias empregadas constituem as variáveis explicativas. Os resultados indicam que uma maior concentração tecnológica está associada de forma positiva e significativa à rentabilidade operacional medida pelo ROCE; entretanto, essa relação não se mostra estatisticamente significativa para o ROA nem para a margem líquida. Aspectos como participação de energias renováveis, grau de diversificação tecnológica e efeito de interação entre concentração e participação renovável não apresentam relações significativas com os indicadores de rentabilidade. Isso sugere que os benefícios associados à especialização tecnológica se manifestam na eficiência do capital, enquanto a diversificação do portfólio — particularmente em direção às fontes renováveis — não se traduz em melhorias financeiras imediatas. As evidências indicam que a transição energética no setor elétrico não gera efeitos homogêneos de curto prazo sobre o desempenho financeiro, evidenciando a necessidade de avaliar seus impactos em horizontes temporais mais amplos e sob condições regulatórias e tecnológicas ainda em processo de consolidação.
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